Saturday, August 22, 2020

BOF00041

BOF00041 is a long-dead bog oak (Quercus) in Bodegraven at the Netherlands. It was one of four dug up there, and of the two dated: of its 186 rings, one spans the Thera eruption. Margot Kuitems, Johannes van der Plicht, and Esther Jansma use it to evaluate the new IntCal20. doi 10.1017/RDC.2020.23.

Apparently Dutch swamp oaks correspond to trees all over the Low Germany.

Anyway what the two Dutchwomen and one Dutchman conclude from BOF00041 is that it does confirm to raise the IntCal13 Thera-era chronology... but not by much, in the Netherland anyway. The implication is that 1600 BC is a good approximation for the climate downturn (and revival).

Johannes van der Plicht and others have (open access) recent developments in calibration. IntCal13 was 1619–08 BC (68.2% confidence) stretched 1625–04 calBC (95.4% confidence). IntCal20 pushes the range ahead in time... but reduces assurance: 1612–1592 BC, wider 1617–1578. As often they were wrong in 2013 but more confident in their (wrong) result.

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