Sunday, October 25, 2020

I expect Trump to win

@jasonrantz has a map. It's a decent map. If I wholly agreed with it, I'd not have anything to post about, so - I'll quibble.

Disclosure: I already voted. I voted as you'd expect.

I give MI to Biden, tentatively. I would give PA... except that Biden blurbled out something something oil, which means he's Green New Deal, which means he's hitting coal first. On the other side MN is in play but, sometimes these swing-states tease us. PA certainly teased us 2008 on.

CO is not in play, of course. But then neither is GA or TX or NC or, really, FL.

I am not saying Trump deserves to win. I am not even saying I am particularly looking forward to the 2021-4 term. I am not offering an endorsement (besides saying "I Voted" and hinting how). I am just saying what I expect in nine/ten days.

RETROSPECT 1, 11/8: I was wrong about MN; and [unstated] about AZ, WI. Also GA, NC although they do lean in the Right direction. I did better with PA (divided), MI (lean Biden). I no longer expect Trump to pull this out. He is looking at the Georgia polls for the Senate: whether he can pull more votes for the two candidates from hopefuls should he (feign to) hang in until the runoff; or if he can get martyrdom points if he concedes on Armistice Day.

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