The provisional vaccine passport

Glenn Reynolds asks a reasonable question: I’D LIKE TO SEE A REALLY SOLID COMPARISON OF POST-INFECTION NATURAL IMMUNITY VS. VACCINE PROTECTION. Unlike some of his comments, and unlike most of his commenters, this question deserves a reasonable answer.

The linked study is talking up Moderna 91%. There's the baseline.

The Lancet posts that a run of the disease offers 84% protection. These are English healthcare workers; the surname "Reynolds" seems Norman to my ear, but I assume Glenn has some pleb in him.

If you're in the 16%, that second run will be a doozy. I understand the Moderna ensures its "second" run - meaning, its 9% first run - is barely noticeable, if you are that unlucky. But by this point the risk is on Dr Reynolds; he's already taken that early one for Team Immunity.

With all the above, we can evaluate his idea that we extend Vaccine Passports to CoVID survivors. My answer is: absolutely, we should. In fact, we should have done that, back in Phase 1.Q.Yuz-a-ma-tuz here, when they'd moved off the most-vulnerable people and were vaccinating 50-somethings. There should have been serological - antibody - tests for the whole lot, and those who had antibodies should have been passed over so the vaccine could be given to uninoculated boomers. This would have freed up vax for the rest of us, sooner.

Call the positive serologic result a Provisional Loicence - whatever lame meme they like. They're like Pfizer bros who get their first dose, and are awaiting their second. Both can go out and do their thing in public if they like their odds. Probably still with the masks on, but we might be losing those by end May. My point is: the survivors don't need in front of us in line; they need a spot in that second line.

I don't know the arguments against it but I can guess. False sense of security, would be one. I believe I've laid out some, like, maths to explain how the sense of security should be cautiously real, real-enough for purpose.

Another is: it incentivises bug chasers, CoVID Parties, people who don't want the vax and would rather catch - and spread - the bug. I deem this worry more real. I also think that they are rare. Not rare enough, especially among PJMedia commenters, but rare.

The fix for that last is, the Provisional Passport runs out. Six months after you caught CoVID, you are deemed a risk again and you're back on Lockdown. Avoid this, and avoid your second virus attack. Get the vaccine.

MEANWHILE 6:15 PM: Denis Rancourt is yet another contrarian being bandied about the Right lately. I suppose Rancourt was more cited last June; I missed it at the time, but he's baaaack. He has now got what he asked for, which was a banning from ResearchGate. I'll just say, to the extent I haven't said it already, that in any plague, sentient beings have three choices: vaccines, masks, isolation. (Mass testing is in there too, for smarter use of any of this.) If - when vaccines are not available - you put about that you don't want masks (and you haven't taken the time to use masks properly)... you're pro lockdown, or you're pro death.