Friday, May 12, 2023

The Dragonfly shouldn't fly

NASA want a Saturn followup to Cassini, focused upon moon Titan. The Dragonfly is slated for takeoff 2027. It's going to cost us. 'Twould be excellent if, then, they had something to boost thrust thither and, then, to decelerate. The former can take advantage of Sol-based accelerants (like the pebbles) but the latter must involve the Rocket Equation. Such high-ISP solutions are nuclear. These are tailor-made to deliver large mass to Saturn - and points beyond.

Popular Mechanics are touting Princeton's Direct Fusion, thermonuclear 'erva. I hadn't known this was in the running anytime soon. Has Princeton come ahead of schedule? That implies PM know something I don't.

It turns out that PM is, to use the scientific term: wrong. As wrong as it may be possible to be wrong.

The Princeton paper they link admits in the early experimental stage; earlier an outside team took it at least seriously-enough to review it. PFRC-3 is the next machine which has five years to go. Only then would they recommend planning for space propulsion which is anticipated 10-15 years out.

Overall Princeton are sending the message that Dragonfly as presently proposed is a massive boondoggle in dollars-per-watt. They would postpone the whole mission until the fusion engine is ready. They point out that at least the fusion science has applications on Earth and perhaps elsewhere in the near-space economy so can beg funding from private actors, thus not requiring a full taxpayer soak. I would add that the Starship might be operational by then, allowing for more tonnage off Earth.

I don't even know I care about Saturn at present. Let's instead consider Uranus. King George's Planet just keeps looking better and better. Also whilst we wait we should be collecting Helium-3, maybe from decayed tritium.

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