Discordance

I am trying not to make this blog yet another virus blog. I am not an epidemiologist or microbiologist, nor even a hobbyist in those fields. I like to imagine I've been pretty good lately at discussing other topics. But if other non-specialists are to opine on this topic then I'll put in a marker.

Specifically I need to address the Rightist commentary, usually best summarised over at Ace of Spades. Ace was on-point about the virus... until yesterday. His shift has allowed his "cob-loggers" likewise to call for the lifting of the lockdown.

[I am aware that overall the Right, Ace's audience, aren't as concerned nor as affected by this disease as are the Left. The American Right is caricatured as rural and white, which isn't wholly fair; but it does have its core in lightly-populated regions, by contrast with New York City. And for the past generation the Right and the Left in this country have diverged at an identitarian level - we are discordant. Before any Leftists get on their high horse about "X-ism" or "Y-phobia", look to yourselves about whether you have ever uttered "this is not who we are". My point here is: Ace and most of his cob-loggers are urbanites, and northeast at that. So they're in the same plague boat as the Left.]

Ace is still on-point that we need a plan for when the lockdown is lifted. The later we wait, the less skilled the, what, third of the country unemployed becomes. We don't want to become the paranoid Counterpart mirror-world, nor chaotic modern Libya.

Further - with all respect to Csefalvay - Ace discussed the models' relationship with current Social Distancing!, yesterday. Those models already take SD!!1 into account. Yes, we're beating those models. (Although Csefalvay is right to slap Chris Hayes around.) Where the models may fall down on the other side is that we're undercounting COVID deaths.

In the meantime, Gregory Cochran was more right earlier. He endorses that the IHME models are too rosy. Maybe the US (outside the worst-hit cities) isn't a total disaster area ... yet. How about we keep it that way?

Ben Winegard, observing Singapore's failure, says we need a vaccine. Here is the current status on those.