The Shang, and probably Erlitou before them, were Chinese. The Shu probably weren't. Somewhere downstream of Shu was Shijiahe on the Yangtze. This civilisation collapsed 1900s BC.
Jin Liao leads a quintet looking at rainfall "4.6–3.5 kyr BP". At the 4.2 mark, started "disturbances". 3.95–3.84, they got what France got in the early AD 1300s: rain, and mortalité. They couldn't drain the rain so left the plain.
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