Elon means to rule the Red Planet. He's read his Moldbug.
That doesn't stop an Earth government from founding its own, dependent government; but Elon's city won't be one of them. As noted I doubt [highly] that Elon, nor anyone else, can found a central Martian government. Although whoever installs a tethering station at Phobos will dominate the routes in and out. Ditto the Libration Points around Earth especially ELL2 and SEL2.
I'd honestly want a base on the Moon's far side before wasting this much fuel to get loads off Earth direct to Mars. Or even something on Antarctica's dry vales. But hey.
Jonah Gottschalk at The Federalist submits some questions to the Lord Protector. Gottschalk expects some of the Martian cities will want Earth-based allies.
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