One point I notice in studying the Church of the East is how their lore doesn't enter into the Qurân, as Marijn van Putten had already noted for the Aramaic loanwords (pace Mingana). Over the past decade Mark Durie has been arguing, in parallel, that Islam's doctrine too cannot be located in the Late Antique Greater JudaeoChristian Syria. More like the Book of Enoch of unblessed memory, the Qurân presents something else - insinuating itself into the Near East, except (even) less successfully.
Aziz al-Azmeh may have a contribution to this proposal. Nicolai Sinai has been looking into pre-Islamic poetry, in which Arabs every now and again make reference to the Divine. In 'Abbasid times, Arabophone Muslims collected these poems and commented upon them, sometimes interpreting a Divine epithet to the only Divine who mattered: Allāh. Sinai takes those interpretations at face-value; but not such interpretations as note a pagan god as a pagan god.
Azmeh - if I be reading him right, as I admittedly don't always - asserts instead Pagan monotheism is an unnecessary conjecture.
As one instance: ʿAntara’s oath by the Lord of the House is taken for an oath by Allāh, on the assumption that the House must be Mecca, and that Allāh must quite naturally be the said lord. One would ask: why not the House at Dūmat al-Ǧandal or elsewhere nearer to this hero’s dwelling, mentioned by Sinai?
I have to agree, that instance is convincing. (Whether or not we mark that G in "Gandal".)
What I do see, however, is that in the earliest days of Islam, many tribes had their own mortal heroes, often going so far as to elevate these as prophets. The Muslims themselves relate of the Ridda Wars, when "rivals" to Islam - who may well have considered themselves, rather, Muhammad's heirs - declared their own status as Prophet and composed suwar of their own. Prophets to the One God Allāh in the seventh century might well have had ancestors who styled themselves prophets to the One God Dushares in the sixth. Or, to give the famous Yemenite case: to the One God Rahmanan.
Rather than a common "Pagan Monotheism", why not a patchwork of paganisms several of which might have been monotheistic, and some even Jewish; but also included Jealous Gods who weren't the JudaeoChristian God...?
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